Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
