Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
